By Liz Burlingame and Philip Pirwitz

Yes, it’s true. Texas used to lean toward the Democratic Party. Hard to believe, we know.

“When? What?” asked one exasperated 18-year-old voter at the San Antonio Clinton rally on Friday. For years, Texas votes have been regarded as sure-things for Republican nominees in a state considered as conservative as New York is blue.  In fact, the state’s GOP dedication is a relatively newer bond than most realize. While the past seven presidential elections have gone to the Republican nominee, 27 of the state’s 38 elections since its admittance to the Union in 1845 have been Democratic victories, the last being Jimmy Carter’s 1976 win. Why the swap? 

The history of Texas’ party is divided into two major periods. From the independence of Texas through 1952, the Democratic Party was the only party in the state. After ‘52 the party faced a growing challenge from the fledgling GOP developing on the political right.  The election of 1944 heightened tensions between Franklin Roosevelt and anti-Roosevelt parts of the party. Wealthy Texas conservatives, who had increased power in the oil and gas industries, were funded by conservatives who controlled about two-thirds of the delegates in the Democratic conventions. The national convention delegates from Texas supported the conservative anti- New Dealers, but angry liberals also sent their own delegation to convention.    In the years following this tension, a two-party system began to emerge. By the end of the 1940s, the Democratic party in Texas was split three ways, between a conservative wing that controlled state politics, liberal New Deal supporters, and a group in the middle that went back and forth between the two extremes – the undecided of the day.  After Republican Allan Shivers became governor in 1952, he stacked the State Democratic Executive Committee with his own supporters. He also changed the election laws to permit cross-filing for both Democrat and Republican primaries in the 52’ election.  Following Shivers win in 1952, the liberals decided to increase their party influence.   In 1956, Lyndon Johnson and Sam Rayburn battled the governor and helped deliver state votes to Dwight Eisenhower for control of Democratic Party machinery. Shiver supporters and conservative Democrats battles’ included mudslinging and mistrust which eventually lead to a deeper division of the Democratic Party.   Fighting declined in the 60’s, but a low point was reached in the 70’s. Democrat Ralph Yarbourough was defeated by conservative Democrat Loyd Bentsen. Bensten employed a strategy that conservatives would increasingly associate with the Republican Party: developing a base support among middle to upper class voters.   “[The party shift] really began when conservatives began appealing to people on a moralistic level,” said Joan McCarter of liberal blog dailykos.  “This wasn’t just Washington politics; it was how people lived their lives.”  In the late 1970s, certainly there was dissatisfaction among conservatives, the bulk of Texas voters, with the state of the Democratic Party, especially regarding Carter’s handling of the gas shortage and the Iranian hostage crisis.  America’s entry into the 1980s would also introduce, from Texas, one of the nation’s most powerful modern families – the Bush family.    In the presidential election of 1980, the beginning of the current streak, Ronald Reagan won Texas, and later the presidency, with George H.W. Bush as his vice president.  Bush had run his political office (as well as his oil business) from the Lone Star State since he was elected to the House of Representatives in 1966.   Ever since 1980, a Bush has been on the ticket every election (with the exception of 1996, where Bob Dole defeated President Bill Clinton in Texas) and Texas has sided with the GOP.  After George W. Bush took office in 2000, Texas was redistricted by Republicans in a controversial move to distribute GOP support throughout the state and break up Democratic strongholds like the city of Austin.  While many argued these tactics were unconstitutional, the current district lines will remain through 2010 as planned.     

In 2008, for only the second time in 30 years, Texas faces a presidential ballot without a nominee by the name of Bush.  Could John McCain or Mike Huckabee capture the Republican support that is to be expected of Texans?  Senator McCain is the early leader in Texas polling, but perhaps due to Republican concerns that McCain is too liberal, or former Governor’s Huckabee’s almost non-existent chance of winning the nomination, already there are small signs of trouble within the Texas GOP.

A story on MSNBC Friday reported, “as many as a tenth of the Texans voting in the Democratic contests could be Republicans, and overwhelmingly they favor Obama.”  Although, “to be sure, the Clinton campaign is drawing some first-time support of its own among Republicans,” reported Johnson.  Like Bush, Clinton also has a career history in Texas, though to a lesser extent. 

 Still, the Republican Party runs the showdown in Texas these days, and despite the reported crossovers, few suspect a country-wide political shift will be a reality this election.    

“I don’t understand those people who can sway back and forth between the parties,” said Rosa Rodriguiez, a Clinton campaign volunteer.  “I think our choices are part of who we are.”