In a short news break from SurveyUSA yesterday the results of their first general election poll was released. They included some Washington state numbers:

SurveyUSA’s first November general election poll conducted of likely voters shows John McCain losing to either Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton in Washington state, but by different margins.

Obama beats McCain by 13 points if the election were today, 53% to 40%.

Clinton beats McCain by 3 points today, 48% to 45%.

So there you have it, if we had voted yesterday Washington would have gone blue no matter what, but it’s a precarious difference.

We’ve seen Clinton’s large margin’s eroded by Obama over time. I would speculate that a 3% point lead for Clinton isn’t enough to put Washington state in the “Definitely Democrat” box come November, especially with a sampling margin of error of +/- 4%.

Here’s a simplified breakdown of the results regarding age, gender and race:

Male voters: 14% swing for Obama
*Obama over McCain by 7%
*McCain over Clinton by 7%

Female voters: 8% swing for Obama
*Obama over McCain by 22%
*Clinton over McCain by 14%

Voters aged 18-34: 28% swing for Obama
*Obama over McCain by 42%
*Clinton over McCain by 14%

Voters aged 35-49: 8% swing for Obama
*Obama over McCain by 3%
*McCain over Clinton by 5%

Voters aged 50-64: 5% swing for Obama
*Obama over McCain by 13%
*Clinton over McCain by 8%

Votes aged 65+: 2% swing for Clinton
*McCain over Obama by 3%
*McCain over Clinton by 1%

White voters: 9% swing for Obama
*Obama over McCain by 11%
*Clinton over McCain by 2%

Black voters: 54% swing for Obama
*Obama over McCain by 68%
*Clinton over McCain by 14%

Hispanic voters: 4% swing for Clinton
*McCain over Obama by 25%
*McCain over Clinton by 21%

Asian/Ot voters: 16% swing for Obama
*Obama over McCain by 40%
*Clinton over McCain by 34%