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Obama supporters speak out; analysts ask what (and who) is ahead?

12:32 pm April 24th, 2008 by burlinea · 5 Comments

Outside of Hillary Clinton’s Park Hyatt hotel victory speech in downtown Philadelphia Tuesday, I was given a lesson in spelling.

“Hillary is the Rock of Gibraltar. R-O-C-K. You can’t shake her,” Cyprian Anyanwu, founder of African Congress USA, Inc. said.

Anyanwu was standing on the road median of Broad St., across from the hotel. Among him were twenty Hillary supporters with oversized signs and megaphones. They were directing their chants at the Barack Obama supporters on the corner, who came in protest.

“How do you spell disappointment? H-I-L-L-A-R-Y,” Obama supporter Alexandar Tavor said, referring to the polls.

A majority of the Clinton people I talked to were staffers (and therefore couldn’t talk to me) but a few passerby’s on their way home from work joined in.

“Most of them were paid to be here and we are grassroots,” Tavor said. “They have bigger signs, but we have bigger voices.”

Anyanwu, on the Clinton side, had worked the polls that day and said she would take the state, if not Philadelphia. He, was right, with 55% to Obama’s 45% as reported by CNN. Polls show that Obama did poorly in the blue collar areas of Pennsylvania, such as Erie County (63% to 37%) and Allegheny County . The votes were split evenly among the two candidates in the suburban areas; votes that are usually claimed by Obama.

No physical confrontation erupted that night, just some chants such as, “Keystone state, Hillary awaits.” And “We want Obama, not Chelsea’s mama.” It was like watching people argue over Sammy Hagar and David Lee Roth. Same band (political party) different front man (candidate).

Back in Seattle now, I’ve gotten a chance to look at the post-primary arguments on a grander scale; those of the national media. Many reports are looking ahead to possible match ups between the Democratic nominee and John McCain.

Clinton’s top aide, Lisa Caputo said that Clinton’s earlier victories in Ohio, Texas, Michigan, Florida and now Pennsylvania confirmed her appeal in the biggest battleground states.

“You can’t discount the fact that Senator Clinton has won those big states you have to win,” Caputo said in an interview with MSNBC’s Keith Olbermann. “It will put some questions in the minds of superdelegates … how come Barack Obama just can’t seem to close the deal?”

Outside of Clinton’s Philadelphia rally, Tavor said that the wins Clinton is gaining from the larger states will be stripped from her if she wins the nomination. He said Clinton appeals more to the labor and the 65 and over voters, but McCain will be more popular amongst that demographic.

ABC news reports that in a Clinton vs. McCain showdown, Clinton would have strong support from her Democratic base and McCain’s support is broader.

“Positive views of Clinton are highest by far in her own political party. Eight in 10 Democrats view her favorably, compared with only two in 10 Republicans. And negative sentiment is extraordinarily intense across the aisle: Almost three-quarters of conservative Republicans have strongly negative feelings toward her… In stark contrast to Clinton, majorities across political and ideological groups see McCain favorably. Only seven points separate Democrats’ and Republicans’ favorable opinions, 57 percent and 64 percent. And remarkably, McCain is viewed favorably by six in 10 liberal Democrats as well as seven in 10 conservative Republicans.”

This serves as fuel for the Obama campaign, as a new political breed emerges: Obamacans. Obama’s speeches on unity and promises that he may not always agree with Republicans, but will listen to them, is drawing in many of the party’s disenchanted voters.

However, two hypothetical’s of an Obama and Clinton matchup against McCain show that their respective standings are almost identical.

Barack Obama:

Hillary Clinton:

Other analysts wonder if Obama will be tough enough for a general election. He said he’s drawing in the independent voters that will likely back the eventual nominee. Clinton adviser Mark Penn says that once the Republicans begin to methodically attack him, he will lose that support.

“Hillary is the Democrat who can beat him — because she has the strength and experience a president needs to get America on the right course and to defend it against future threats. …Sen. Obama has been telling voters that he is the one to beat Sen. McCain because he gave a speech against the war in 2002 and because he is currently attracting independent voters. But those arguments don’t hold up to current polling, to history or to what is likely to happen in a general election.”

The next leg of the race is Indiana, and while disappointment and excitement was high among both sets of Pennsylvanian supporters, this primary could bring out even more emotion. This is where it could finally end.

Tags: Barack Obama · Hillary Clinton · Primary

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