The AP published an analysis of the governor’s race this month, saying the race could be affected by national trends- namely the 2008 presidential candidates. Gov. Christine Gregoire’s endorsement of Barack Obama might help her attract voters from his demographic.

Gregoire’s somewhat surprising endorsement of Obama shores up cred with party liberals and young people, and she still has a strong following among women voters. Still, Rossi has to like McCain’s appeal to independent voters, especially if Hillary Clinton is the Democratic nominee. Last time, Rossi nearly won even as George Bush was tanking in the state, so a more level playing field would be a gift.

However, the appeal for “change” that Obama keeps hammering out was adapted as Republican Dino Rossi’s theme. He told the Seattle P-I, “We have heard a lot of promises, seen lots of studies and read many task force reports. But what we haven’t seen are real results. Washington state does not need four more years of indecision and ineffectiveness. It is time for change, and for a state government that will serve the people first.”

Obama: “I know I haven’t spent a lot of time learning the ways of Washington. But I’ve been there long enough to know that the ways of Washington must change.”

Since both houses of Congress, both chambers of Legislature and the Governor’s mansion are all democratic, change isn’t a relevant campaign theme for Gregoire. She’s opting instead for “Taking on challenges-getting results.”

Rossi’s mirroring of a Democratic candidate could weaken Gregoire’s tie to Obama in the public eye, and help broaden his support base. Yet the AP said that both candidates’ strategies are subject to another national issue: the economy.

If the national economy craters and state revenue falls off, the surplus that shields Gregoire could evaporate. That, of course, would play into Rossi’s hands as he warns darkly of deficits and gripes about overspending. Political scientist at Western Washington University, Tod Donovan, who gives Gregoire the edge in the race, figures that voters aren’t paying close attention to the size of the state surplus or the pending deficit, but are more driven by whether they have a job and whether they’re personally affected by the housing and mortgage problems.

So far, Gregoire isn’t damaged, and Rossi’s case would be stronger if recession already had hit and Olympia had raised taxes, he says.