All signs point to Sen. Hillary Clinton scoring a huge victory in West Virginia’s primary today. The demographics are great for her - lots of older voters and blue-collar workers, and a small black population - and Sen. Barack Obama is spending the day all the way over in Missouri, hardly attempting to challenge her advantage.
But will this victory be enough for Clinton’s floundering campaign?
Clinton, from New York, is ahead in West Virginia by an average of 40 points in the most recent public opinion polls.
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But even a landslide victory in West Virginia, which has 28 delegates, may be too little too late to keep Clinton realistically in the hunt for the Democratic presidential nomination. She trails Obama, from Illinois, in delegates won, states won and the popular vote so far this primary season. Clinton also now trails Obama when it comes to the support of superdelegates, and her campaign is $20 million in the red.
Clinton said she’s fighting on, telling a West Virginia crowd Sunday that “I guess my favorite message was from a woman named Angela. ‘Keep strong,’ she said, ‘it’s not over until the lady in the pantsuit says it is.’ “
In terms of math, West Virginia’s 28 delegates will not be enough to convince superdelegates that Clinton should be the Democratic nominee. The New York Times delegate count shows Obama with 1,875 delegates to Clinton’s 1,690, meaning Obama needs about 150 delegates to clinch the nomination and Clinton needs more than double that number.
But Clinton’s focusing on West Virginia’s significance in the bigger picture: the general election.
“I’m winning Catholic voters and Hispanic voters and blue-collar workers and seniors, the kind of people that Sen. McCain will be fighting for in the general election. Now some call you swing voters, I call you Americans — and I call you hard-working West Virginians who are trying to figure out what is best for you and your families,” Clinton said.
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Clinton is also using electoral history to maker her case. “I think it’s fair to say that West Virginia is a test. It’s a test for me and it’s a test for Sen. Obama, because for too long we have let places like West Virginia slip out of the Democratic column. And you know it is a fact that no Democratic president has ever won the White House since 1916 without winning West Virginia. That’s how important the voters of West Virginia are,” Clinton said.
Perhaps these tactics will help her with superdelegates whose main concerns involve the general election. Or, as some are speculating, perhaps it’s too little, too late.
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1 Clinton likely to win West Virginia - but does it matter? // May 13, 2008 at 1:43 pm
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